TradeStop

  The SaaS-pocalypse and the Cost of Indiscriminate Fear There’s no denying it: we’re in the middle of a SaaS-pocalypse. The market is pricing many software companies as if they won’t exist by the end of the year. Multiples have compressed, sentiment is bleak, and anything even tangentially exposed to AI disruption is being treated as guilty until proven otherwise. But markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. And when uncertainty peaks, discernment often disappears. Instead of separating which SaaS businesses have durable moats from those that don’t, the market is selling indiscriminately. The assumption seems to be that software is now trivial to replicate — that you can simply “vibe-code” your way to an enterprise-grade replacement. In my view, that dramatically understates how hard it is to build, deploy, and maintain software at scale, especially in mission-critical domains. Take cybersecurity. Replacing a core security platform isn’t like swapping out a produ...

  a This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone associated with me.  The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.   I may or may not hold investments in the companies or securities discussed on this website. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes on...

My TSM Take: Wide-moat semiconductor company at a reasonable price $239/share x 2 = $478 The main risk to TSM, in my opinion, is the risk from China; the two nations have a tenuous relationship at best. Adding 2 shares of GOOGL $191/share x 2 + $382 Marlin Sandlin owns shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone ass...

The stock pulled back 25% AH, and I will buy 3 shares at market open. If the price continues to drop, I may add a couple more shares. Marlin Sandlin owns shares of The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD). This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone associated with me.  The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.   I may or may not hold investments in the ...

Model Portfolio: 40.6% SPY: 17 .6%        QQQ: 50.5% While the Model Portfolio lags QQQ, I am happy with the returns. I will post a more thorough article on lessons I learned throughout this investment period. Happy Holidays! This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone associated with me.  The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice....

CELH is undervalued, IMO. The biggest problem facing the company is an inventory problem that I believe will be a short—to medium-term problem. The stock may not do so well in the meantime, but I see this as an opportunity to add at a reduced valuation. $34 per share x 6 = $192 For those who want additional information about Celcius, you can see the summary by ChatGPT below. Celsius Holdings, Inc. is a company known for producing fitness drinks and energy beverages. Founded in 2004, Celsius markets its products as functional drinks that boost energy and metabolism, often targeting fitness enthusiasts and health-conscious consumers. Key Points: Product Line : Celsius offers a range of beverages, including sparkling and non-sparkling options. Their drinks often contain ingredients like caffeine from natural sources (like green tea and guarana), vitamins, and other performance-boosting components. Health Focus : The brand emphasizes health and wellness, positioning its products as free fr...

I sold CELH due to a double top formation and the thought that parabolic runs eventually correct. Now, the stock is down over 60%, and the valuation is much more reasonable. The reason for the CELH drop is, in my estimation, due to two factors.     1. Inventory problems at PEP. PEP had too much CELH on the shelves, so they are ordering fewer      CELH products. PEP buys CELH products directly from CELH, so when CELH products are  overstocked, PEP buys less from CELH, which means less revenue for CELH.     2. Overall slowdown in the energy drink sector. Combine these two, and you can see why the stock sold off. Sentiment toward CELH as an investment could remain negative for a while (until the inventory situation improves, one would hope). I am adding 15 shares of CELH at $33.07 for a total of $495.15. Marlin Sandlin owns shares of Celcius Holdings Inc. (CELH). This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for...

The big drop got my attention. The stock is up quite a bit, and selling preserves much of the profits. Another reason I chose to sell for now is the technical setup (double top) A lot of people would criticize my decision to sell. I could be wrong to sell now. But one can always buy back into a company (although timing when to buy back into a stock can be difficult). The price I sold was $81.88. The split-adjusted price of the first shares purchased is about $31.60. I need to calculate returns including all shares, but I believe it will be about a 100% return. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the info...

I am starting positions in DUOL and KNSL. Here is some information about the companies from ChatGPT. Duolingo -Duolingo is a language learning platform that offers free courses in multiple languages through a mobile app and website. The company utilizes a gamified approach to education, incorporating elements like points, levels, and rewards to make learning engaging and effective. Users can practice reading, writing, speaking, and listening skills, with lessons tailored to their proficiency levels. Duolingo also provides additional features such as a premium subscription for an ad-free experience and access to offline courses. It is the gamification that is at the top of my reasons for buying, in addition to their expanding into new topics like mathematics. The company is growing revenue at an impressive clip -- 44% YoY and 36% forward (an estimate they may beat, having beat estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters). Duol offers a free service and I suggest anyone considering an investme...

2024 has started with a 2-day selloff -- mostly in the tech and growth stock sector. Growth stocks both raise fast and fall fast. SOFI (which is not a stock I recommend at this time) dropped nearly 14% today. CELH, which is a holding in the Model Portfolio, dropped over 6% today. The market went on a tremendous run in 2023, so a pullback is to be expected. The question is whether this is a short-term pullback or a long-term pullback. Some say the US will experience a recession in 2024. Some say a "soft landing" is possible. The truth is, no one knows.  I don't have any plans to sell any shares in the Model Portfolio, for now at least. I also have quite a bit of hypothetical cash in the portfolio. From the beginning (or near it), I saw it as a $25,000 portfolio. The Model Portfolio holds about $15,000 in assets, so about $10,000 in cash. Of course, not everyone has that much cash on the sidelines.  But when I go add shares, it will be slowly over time. I will not deploy th...

Model Portfolio gain since inception           +61% SPY gain since inception                                   +18% QQQ gain since inception                                 +45% My goal with the Model Portfolio was to beat SPY and QQQ. I am pleased to see that goal was accomplished. However, there is no telling what will happen in 2024.  Hyper-growth stocks fall as fast as they gain. GLBE, NET, DDOG, CELH, CWRD, SNOW, NU, and ADYEY are the hyper-growth holdings in the Model Portfolio. Even if there are major drawdowns in 2024, my plan is to add shares rather than sell.  Timing the market is difficult. Sometimes when one takes profits, one ends up buying at a higher price. There is also the fact that short-term sales have a substantially larger capital gain...

The Trade Desk (TTD) is an exceptional cloud-based digital advertising company. The stock was been priced for perfection for much of the year. However, the stock has pulled back over the last month. I feel more comfortable starting a position at the lower valuation. For an insightful article on The Trade Desk, I suggest reading From Growth to Value's recent SeekingAlpha article. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651586-the-trade-desk-stock-no-reasons-to-worry Adding 7 shares at $69 for $483. I do not plan to add more positions for now. I want to keep the portfolio somewhat concentrated. If I were to add another, it would be Enphase (ENPH). I believe ENPH could be a good turnaround story depending on how macro-factors shake out. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute in...

Below is the return percentage of the Model Portfolio versus two benchmarks -- SPY and QQQ. Model Portfolio          25.4% SPY                                  8.6% QQQ                                22.8%

 ADYEY is a high-quality growth-fintech company that's reasonably valued. When the stock sold off in August, the price was cut in half. ADYEY used to trade for 40x sales and later 25x sales. Today, the stock is valued at 9.81x sales. As you can see, the day chart is extremely bullish. However, that does not mean a sustained rally is coming. ADYEY could drop even more, especially if inflation ticks back up and/or bond yields continue to rise. Whether the stock drops over the short-term is not so important to me. I am adding ADYEY to the portfolio because I believe it is a good long-term investment. Buying 50 shares at $7.85 = $395.50 Have a great weekend! This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any ...

Tech stocks are down today, particularly growth stocks. Several of the companies in the Model Portfolio have pulled back. Therefore, I'll be adding the following stocks. NU $8.88x40 = $355 GLBE $36.58 x10 = $365.80 NET $56.55x4 = $226 CELH $170.28x1 = $170.28 DDOG $88.42 x 2 = $176.84 CRWD $162.53x2 = $326.06 GOOGL $130.44x2 = $260.88 AMD $98.11x2 = $196.22 I am also starting a position in ASML. ASML $582.12 X1 = $581.12 I will update the total holding amounts and returns in the near future. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  T...

Due to time constraints, I haven't been able to make as many updates as I'd like. I do not anticipate having time for regular updates for the foreseeable future. However, these are my most recent thoughts on the market. The market looks to be in correction mode. I'm not seeing *strong* sell signals just yet. Earnings are largely over, and CPI data came in better than expected. We'll see what happens next. Growth stocks are extremely volatile. Just look at swings with ENPH, UPST, MQ, and JMIA. The price of growth stock investing is volatility.  One has to decide for oneself whether they can live with the volatility or are better suited to Blue Chip, Dividend, or ETF investing. Sometimes the only way to know what one's style is is through experience. In my personal portfolio, I sold ENPH due to concerns about interest rates on solar installations. The stock is atttactively priced, in my opinion, and it is on my close watch list. I also sold CB and WM -- they are extre...

The total beginning value below is the sum of each share at the price of purchase. The Model Portfolio launched on November 29, 2022. Total Beginning Value          $12,880 Current Value                            $15,497 Return                                           16.9% SPY                                                6% QQQ                                             17.2% The Model Portfolio is outperforming the "Market" (SP500) by 10.9%, while its returns nearly match those of QQQ. The...

The market made a strong move up today, particularly in growth stocks. UPST rose 15%, NET 8%, SNOW 6%, NVDA 5%, and GLBE 5% (rounded numbers).  UPST is up over 100% this year, as are NVDA, CELH, GLBE, and NFLX.  Several other growth stocks are up nearly 100%, including COIN, SE, ASML, and NU. Why are these stocks up so much? Here are some possible explanations.     1. Declines in COVID infections and the reopening of economies     2. Many stocks, including growth stocks, were near historically low valuations, and funds bought                 the dips     3. Many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings.     4. Declining inflation     5. A possible pause in rising interest rates Most recently, regional bank ETF's are turning up for the first time in a long-time. Stronger regional banks may lead to greater investor confidence. SPY did not make a strong move above resistanc...

Model Portfolio Holdings SNOW     +22% CELH     +21% AMD       +13.6% NET         +13% NU         +11% GOOGL   +11% CRWD     +10% WM         +8.5% MA           +8% DDOG     +5.5% GLBE        +4.5% MELI        +3% CB            -4.5% ENPH      -18% This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strict...

Additions I'm adding 100 shares of NU to the model portfolio. The current price is $5.24 for a total cost of  $540. Adding 2 shares of CRWD @ $118 for $236. Adding 2 shares of CELH @ $100 for $200. Adding 1 share of MA @ $375 Adding 1 share of CB @ $195 Adding 10 shares of GLBE @ $29 for $290 Adding 1 share of ENPH @ $155 Adding 1 share of MELI @ $1,213 Adding 5 shares of DDOG @ $75 for $375 Adding 10 shares of NET @ $41 for $410 Adding 100 shares of NU @ $5.24 for $524 P&L SNOW 130/155 = +16% CELH 88/100 = +12% GOOGL 96/105 = +8.6% WM 158/168 = +6% MA 356/376 = +5.4% AMD 84/87 = +3.5% CRWD 118/118 = breakeven  NET = breakeven DDOG = breakeven MELI = breakeven NU = breakeven GLBE = 30/29 1.03 or -3% CB 211/195 = 1.08 or -8% ENPH = 187/155 1.21 or -21% Total Gain = $608 Total Portfolio Gain Percentage  = +6.8% SPY Return Since Model Portfolio Launch = +2.8% This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informationa...