SP500 Broke Trend Line -- Now What?

 The SP500 broke its bearish trend line this week. Does this mean the bottom is in?


The short answer is, "No one knows." SPX broke the trend line briefly a few times, depending on how one drew it. I say that to say this could be a blip above the trend line and then back down. I think giving the market some time (and observing more data) is prudent before saying the bottom is in.

Plus, for the most part, I focus on the action of individual stocks more than macroconditions when it comes to buying and selling. Several stocks in the Model Portfolio flashed bullish signs before the SP500 broke the trend line. As an example, here is the ASML chart.


ASML showed 4 bullish signs: bounce off support, a double bottom, and two indicator candles. A bullish technical thesis for an individual stock can happen both before the broader market turns bullish and during a bear market.

Knowing ASML as a high-quality company with a deep moat, there was no question in my mind whether the stock would rebound -- it was simply a matter of time. When I saw the discount that ASML traded at in October 2023 and the indicator candles, it seemed like a good time to buy. ASML shares are up about 58% since. 

From Oct. 2022 to the present, the SPY is up about 12.5%. QQQ is up about 12% over that same period. 

To reiterate, in the case of ASML, buying on technical indicators (and some basic company-specific information) produced a return 4x the SP500 and NASDAQ. ASML could crash on Monday, so these gains are not guaranteed to last. 

A short-term investor/trader might sell, take the gains, and wait for a better entry. They could also look at other stocks to buy. How short or long-term to go is an individual decision. 

For now, we'll be watching the macro environment and monitoring company specific technicals.

Have a great rest of the weekend!


This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone associated with me.  The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.   I may or may not hold investments in the companies or securities discussed on this website.

Marlin Sandlin owns shares of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML).

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buying Back into CELH

I sold CELH due to a double top formation and the thought that parabolic runs eventually correct. Now, the stock is down over 60%, and the valuation is much more reasonable. The reason for the CELH drop is, in my estimation, due to two factors.     1. Inventory problems at PEP. PEP had too much CELH on the shelves, so they are ordering fewer      CELH products. PEP buys CELH products directly from CELH, so when CELH products are  overstocked, PEP buys less from CELH, which means less revenue for CELH.     2. Overall slowdown in the energy drink sector. Combine these two, and you can see why the stock sold off. Sentiment toward CELH as an investment could remain negative for a while (until the inventory situation improves, one would hope). I am adding 15 shares of CELH at $33.07 for a total of $495.15. Marlin Sandlin owns shares of Celcius Holdings Inc. (CELH). This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for...
Read more

Adding to CELH Position

CELH is undervalued, IMO. The biggest problem facing the company is an inventory problem that I believe will be a short—to medium-term problem. The stock may not do so well in the meantime, but I see this as an opportunity to add at a reduced valuation. $34 per share x 6 = $192 For those who want additional information about Celcius, you can see the summary by ChatGPT below. Celsius Holdings, Inc. is a company known for producing fitness drinks and energy beverages. Founded in 2004, Celsius markets its products as functional drinks that boost energy and metabolism, often targeting fitness enthusiasts and health-conscious consumers. Key Points: Product Line : Celsius offers a range of beverages, including sparkling and non-sparkling options. Their drinks often contain ingredients like caffeine from natural sources (like green tea and guarana), vitamins, and other performance-boosting components. Health Focus : The brand emphasizes health and wellness, positioning its products as free fr...
Read more

Model Portfolio Performance

Model Portfolio: 40.6% SPY: 17 .6%        QQQ: 50.5% While the Model Portfolio lags QQQ, I am happy with the returns. I will post a more thorough article on lessons I learned throughout this investment period. Happy Holidays! This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone associated with me.  The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice....
Read more