TradeStop

 The SP500 broke its bearish trend line this week. Does this mean the bottom is in? The short answer is, "No one knows." SPX broke the trend line briefly a few times, depending on how one drew it. I say that to say this could be a blip above the trend line and then back down. I think giving the market some time (and observing more data) is prudent before saying the bottom is in. Plus, for the most part, I focus on the action of individual stocks more than macroconditions when it comes to buying and selling. Several stocks in the Model Portfolio flashed bullish signs before the SP500 broke the trend line. As an example, here is the ASML chart. ASML showed 4 bullish signs: bounce off support, a double bottom, and two indicator candles. A bullish technical thesis for an individual stock can happen both before the broader market turns bullish and during a bear market. Knowing ASML as a high-quality company with a deep moat, there was no question in my mind whether the stock would...

Some stocks seemed to be topping to me. I mentioned CELH, and the stock has since dropped 12.3% since.   Pharma stocks also looked to be topping, including MRK. I was tempted to add MRK earlier in the Model Portfolio, but I didn't want to buy at the top.  MRK is down 5% since its 52wk high. I still like the company as an investment but prefer not to add while the stock is still trending down. Other healthcare stocks on the decline are WBA, LLY, PFE, ABBV, and UNH. A lot of people are expecting a recession, and there may very well be another leg down. That's why I don't want to deploy a lot of cash at once (lump-sum investing). I think I mentioned before that I see the portfolio being around $20,000, so the Model Portfolio holds around 75% cash as of today.  While I do not hold this exact portfolio in my personal finances, I hold positions in each of the companies in the Model Portfolio and that is my plan for the foreseeable future. If a stock isn't a good enough invest...

The SP500 is approaching the trend line off which is has dropped consistently over the last 13 months. Whether that pattern continues no one can know.  There seems to be a lot of bullish chatter about tomorrow's report. I don't feel like I have a great sense of where the market is going next (I lean toward one more down). Even if there is a major move up or down, that doesn't necessarily make for a trend. It can take days or weeks to get a sense of where the momentum is going. Earnings season has begun. Earnings reports could hint at the way the market moves over the first quarter of 2023. If there is a move down, I'll be looking to pick up some shares. Possible adds include MA, WM, CB, NOW, ASML, and AMD (another semi stock I like which is much cheaper than ASML as of now). This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financia...

The market is heading up, especially the tech sector. The SP500 looks to be heading to 4,000. If the YTD pattern continues, the market may bounce off the trend line and go back down (this is, of course, not a certainty).  My thinking is to hold for now and buy if/when there is a retrace. The stocks at the top of my watchlist are ASML and NOW. Have a great rest of the day! This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsemen...

I am adding two shares of Waste Management, Inc (WM) per share to the model portfolio. WM has been a solid blue chip, providing stability and an 88% return over the last five years. WM also boasts a 1.63% dividend.  WM joins its blue-chip peers MA and CB in the portfolio. WM is not a cheap stock, which is why I only bought a small position. If given the opportunity, I'd like to add more WM at a lower valuation. WM $159.49 per share $159.49 *2 = $318.98 This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to arti...

  The Model Portfolio is -6.2% since its inception. SNOW, MA, and CB provided small gains, but the drops in GOOGL (-8.3%) and especially CRWD (-17.4%) weighed the portfolio down.  I posted about my concerns with CRWD. CRWD delivered sequential declines in ARR, and that has the market spooked.  CRWD seems to be holding at support, but it could drop quite a bit if support doesn't hold. If the chart shows a strong indicator for a break of support, I might consider selling a couple shares to hedge. Growth stocks like CRWD tend to move in extremes compared to blue chips -- they're more up on up days and more down on down days. Holding growth stocks requires a lot of volatility tolerance.  For those who do not want to see as much volatility in their stocks, investing in indexes, bonds, and blue chips may be a better fit. My understanding of bonds is somewhat limited, which is why I only mention them in passing on this site. My plan, for now, is to hold cash and see how thi...

This chart reflects my primary concern with CRWD. When companies grow parabolically in a relatively short time, they often retrace -- at times all the way down. The CRWD parabolic began around $58. I'm not necessarily going to sell any shares, but I'm not opposed to trimming a small amount, either. I'm going to see how the next week goes and then reassess. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to constitute investment advice or provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.  Any action you take upon the information you find on this website is strictly at your own risk.  This website may share links to articles and information which is interesting to me, but it is in no way an endorsement by me or by anyone ...

TradeStop is meant to be a resource for quick information, technical analysis, and stock observation. TradeStop is meant to be a launchpad for further research for readers -- NOT an advice blog. For those interested in growth stocks, tried and true blue chips, and technical analysis, you may like it here. Only you can click buy and sell and are 100% responsible for your trading decisions. The utility of Technical Analysis in trading is debatable. But TA is something I use in my personal investing, and I will use it here as well. Investing in stocks, ETF's, and other securities is risky and can lead to substantial financial losses, if not a complete financial loss -- and even unlimited loss potential in the case of shorting the market. This website is created and authored by Marlin Sandlin and is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and merely cites my own personal opinions.  I am not a financial advisor, and this website is not intended to consti...